Lowetide: 10 free agents for the Oilers who will compete this summer (2023)

A year ago, theEdmonton Oilerswas in a difficult position because of the salary cap. A week before free agency, the team had signed 15 players, with a lump sum of more than $75 million.

That left just over $7 million to acquire seven players.

Oilers general manager Ken Holland went to work over draft weekend and cleared some capital dollars by trading a veteran wingerJacques Cassian($3.2 million AAV times two years) atArizona coyotes.

Edmonton was also helped by the departure of Duncan Keith andMike SchmidtHis inability to play the 2022-23 season, freeing up $7.5 million in cap dollars.

When free agency began, the Oilers had cap space to contend with.

A year ago I mentioned10 quality goals for free agents. Edmonton signed three.

Here are 10 worthy targets for free agency in 2023.

Forward

Jasper quickly,Hurricane Carolina

If there's a perfect fit for what the Oilers need this summer, it's definitely Fast. Fast is a man who can stick with high quality skills and affect the target share. Fast is also at the end of a contract that underpaid him.

The quick signing would cost much more than his salary last season ($2 million), but his skill set is ideal for an Edmonton team that lacks defensive awareness on the front line.

Fast turns 32 in December, but has great speed and can help on five-on-five kills and penalties.

His five-on-five scoring is a little shy, but his numbers possession has been strong over the last two seasons.

All numbers five against five

This is the player the Oilers neededJesse Puljujarvito become, but at this point in the organization's window to win, a veteran like Fast should be considered an ideal choice. Edmonton would have to overpay, if necessary, in an attempt to close out the top six.

Ivan Barbashiev,Vegas Golden Knights

Barbasev would occupy the same position in the lineup (No. 2 right winger inLeon Draisaitlrule) olive groves were allowed to sign it.

He has provided more offense than Fast in recent years and has a 51 percent target share over the past two seasons.

Here are his numbers with theBluesand Golden Knights.

All numbers five against five

One interesting thing about Barbashev, and something that could affect him if he were to sign in Edmonton, is the increased playing time against the elite once he arrived in Vegas.

In St. Louis, he averaged 3:59 per game against elite teams, reaching 5:40 per game once with the Knights. His target share fell after the trade, but his underlying numbers were better.

While Barbashev may be a bigger offensive contributor to wins overall, he's also likely to be more expensive in free agency than Fast and less effective without the puck.

Alex Killorn,Blixem in Tampa Bay

The Oilers need what Killorn brings and he represents the top at No. 2 right wing.

Killorn has real ability (27 goals and 64 points in 2022/23) but is also a responsible player.

He can play both sides and has had strong five-on-five scores over the past two regular seasons. Its target share is 56 percent with an expected target share of 49 percent.

He scored 2.23 points per 60 five-on-five over those two seasons. This is number 61 belowNHLforwards who have played 1,000 or more minutes in the division in the last two seasons.

There are some signs of corrosion. Puck IQ lets Killorn play big minutes against elites and score better in those minutes. Share (DFF-percentage) was 43.8 in 2021-22 and 48.6 last season.

In the short term, Killorn could be a strong option for Edmonton, but his price is likely to be on the high side. After completing a seven-year deal with an AAV ($4.45 million) that was great value for Tampa Bay, the efficient forward will be looking for a big contract.

Grant Hathaway,Boston Bruins

Hathaway's numbers when he played for herWashington Capitalsthey've been strong in the areas Edmonton needs this summer.

The idea of ​​Hathaway in a leading role (line two) is more than a minor tweak. This player's track record (middle six or fourth line bets) means he is on a list of players who could play on the wing with Draisaitl orConnor McDavid.

The numbers don't lie.

Hathaway averaged 1.59 points per 60 on five-on-five shooting and held a 56 percent shooting percentage (55 percent expected goals) during his time in Washington.

Puck IQ shows he averaged 3:48 per night against the elite, with a 53.3 DFF percentage and 6-3 goals. It was also impressivethird year in a rowHathaway succeeded in Washington. His most common companions during these years wereNick DowdInCarl Hagelin.

Hathaway would be a bit of a gamble, but it could pay off in an excellent value deal. His last contract was $1.5 million and even with a significant raise, Hathaway will be affordable.

Defense

Scott Mayfield,New York Islanders

Mayfield's impressive suppression numbers have every NHL team looking for a high-value player.

Going five-for-five in 2022/23, the Islanders have allowed just 2.08 goals per 60 (No. 32 among regular NHL defensemen).

Oilers fans would love Mayfield, a tall (6-foot-5, 220-pound) shutdown defenseman who canplay long minutesagainst elite and won the shot and the goal.

Mayfield is Edmonton's top defensive option and would be a solid partner for either of themNurse Darnell,Matthias Ekholm,Brett earofPhilip Bromberg.

The problem is the number of teams that will compete for his services and the lack of capacity in Edmonton. To moveCody Dittwould be key, and even then it's uncertain the Oilers would have enough to secure Mayfield.

He is the No. 1 defensive target while also unlikely to sign with the Oilers.

Matt Duba,Minnesota Wild

If Edmonton were to sign a player like Duba, it would also be as a replacement for Cesi. One of the key issues for management this summer is the closure of Ceci and Nurse.

Dumba is considered an upgrade and will definitely be more expensive. Using Puck IQ vs. Elite numbers, here are the two men and their numbers from the past two seasons combined.

All five-on-five numbers against the elite through Puck IQ

Turning 29 in July, Duba would need a long-term deal and possibly a raise on his just-completed $6 million contract with AAV. In order for the Oilers to market Dumba, Ceci and one other player must be given away.

It's a bet.

Radko Gud,Florida Panthers

If there's one NHL defenseman who represents what Oilers fans want to see on the team's blue line, it's Gudas.

Gudas is a quiet player who has an edge to his game that is arguably unmatched in today's NHL.

He is effective and intimidating while also being effective in coverage.

Wipe IQ numbershe showed less elite play in 2022/23 and may not be the ideal top-four defensive option for Edmonton.

It would be one of the most popular free agent signings in Oilers history.

Oil producers

Edmonton's third and fourth lines have been one of the most impressive things about the 2022-2023 season. Three veterans contributed, all free agents this summer.

It's unlikely the Oilers can afford all of them, but they're worth noting.

All numbers five against five

Dirk Ryanis an important part of the success of the bottom six lines. His five-on-five goal share (31-24) shines like a beacon compared to the Oilers' forward depth over the last decade.

Matthias Janmark(30-30) inchesNick BjugstadHe also impressed (10-6).

resume

The Oilers need to reset the right wing depth chart, withKailer Yamamotocan leave the system. He would join Puljujarvi in ​​a revision on the right side.

Zac Hymanis the number 1 right winger and the second in the division right winger must be from the list above.

Fast looks like a perfect fit, with all the quality picks from Barbashev, Killorn and Hathaway.

Defense is tough because it's a mediocre free agent class and the prices will be expensive.

There's a chance Edmonton ends up with no one on defense and Ceci returns.

If management can sign two of last season's three attacking depth players, the impressive display from the bottom six forwards will be repeated again in 2023-24.

(Photo by Ivan Barbashev: Stephen R. Sylvanie / USA Today)